WB: China's 2011 export growth will fall to 12.4%

世行：中国出口增长或降至12.4%

China will no longer depend so much on trade surplus to support its economic growth, according to a report by the World Bank.

The World Bank predicted China's average trade surplus in 2011 and 2012 to stand at about US$200 billion, 2.7 percent of the country's GDP and only 0.2 percentage point of its projected GDP growth. In 2010, the trade surplus accounted for 0.8 percentage point of China's economic growth, while the number was about 2.4 percentage points around 2005.

According to the report, China's exports will grow by 12.4 percent in 2011, which is only about half the country's export growth rate before the financial crisis broke out in 2009.

"With export volumes slowing more rapidly than import volumes, the contribution of net trade to real GDP growth will decline," said the World Bank in its latest China Quarterly Update report.

The less diminished role of trade in supporting China's economic growth is partly because of slack demand, as the rest of the world struggles to recover from the financial crisis, said Louis Kuijs, a Beijing-based senior economist of the World Bank.

The third round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held from May 9 and 10 in Washington D.C. China's policies on currency exchange rate will no doubt be a key focus of the dialogue.

Analysts believe that the World Bank's study may make it even harder for the U.S. to pressure China to further appreciate the yuan, especially after China posted a small trade deficit in the first quarter.

据世界银行发布的中国经济季报中显示，“中国将不再过多依赖贸易顺差来实现经济增长”。

世界银行预计2011年、2012年中国的贸易顺差平均约为2000亿美元，只占国民生产总值的2.7%，对GDP预计增速的贡献率只有0.2个百分点。去年贡献率为0.8个百分点。相比之下，2005年前后这一贡献率约2.4个百分点。

世行预测，2011年经通胀调整的出口增长率将达12.4%。而这只相当于2009年金融危机爆发前中国一贯保持的增长率的大约一半。

“由于比过去要小得多，这样就减少了总体贸易对中国经济增长的贡献率。”世界银行上述报告称。

世界银行驻北京高级经济师高路易指出，贸易在中国经济增长中作用下降的部分原因在于，其他国家和地区正在从全球金融危机中艰难复苏，需求不足。

5 月9日，中美战略与经济对话将在华盛顿召开，中国的汇率政策无疑会成为焦点。

分析人士认为，世行的上述研究，可能令美国敦促人民币进一步升值的工作更加困难，尤其是在今年一季度中国出现小额贸易逆差这一时期。