Will the Fed launch a third round of quantitative easing?

 美联储会实行第三轮量化宽松么？

 With the completion of the second round of quantitative easing (QE) in June, the market is now speculating whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a third round at their April 28 meeting.

It's difficult to accurately predict the Fed's move next week based on current information. However, we can make two predictions about the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

First, judging from recent U.S. economic data, the possibility for an interest rate hike is almost zero. Although the U.S. nominal consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in March on higher food and energy prices, the country's core inflation rate is still growing relatively slowly, indicating the US economic growth is within a normal range and showing no sign of acceleration. Besides, although the unemployment rate dropped slightly last month, it's still well above average historic levels. It should be noted that unlike the European Central Bank, the Fed cares more about economic recovery and therefore uses the core CPI as its major target for monetary policy. Under such a scenario, we believe it's nearly impossible for the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates in the short term.

Second, if there was a QE3, we don't think it will be larger than QE2. The Fed's balance sheet has far surpassed its normal size, restricting its ability to expand further. Furthermore, quantitative easing has resulted in surging asset and commodity prices in the global market, drawing criticism from other economies. On the other hand, we also think it's highly unlikely the Fed will terminate QE2 early. It may continue to carry out a relatively small-scale Treasury bond purchase and gradually wind up the quantitative easing policy in an effort to secure sustained economic growth in the country.

However, it should be pointed out that no matter whether a QE policy is announced or not, either outcome may trigger market concerns that the Fed may gradually reduce bond purchases or exit the program for good. This will present a major downward risk for the foreign exchange and commodity markets next week.

4月28日凌晨，美联储将进行议息会议，由于美联储的第二轮量化宽松计划将于6月到期，因此市场也开始猜测美联储新一轮量化宽松的可能性。

从目前的各方面信息来看，市场仍然很难准确解读出美联储在下周的举动。澳新银行将从以下的两方面来进行分析。

第一，从目前美国的各方面数据来看，美联储加息的可能性几乎为零。尽管美国的名义CPI在食品和能源价格的推动下在3月份上升至2.7％，与上月相比上升了0.6个百分点，但核心通胀率的上涨速度却仍然显得较为缓慢。这表明美国经济的增长仍然处于较为正常的区间，并没有出现加速的迹象。同时，尽管美国的失业率出现了一定的下滑，但与历史平均水平相比，仍有非常大的差距。需要指出的是，与欧洲央行不同，美联储相对更加关注经济的复苏，并把货币政策的焦点放在核心通胀率上，在这样的情况下，我们认为，美联储在短期内加息的可能性几乎为零。

第二，我们认为，即使存在第三轮量化宽松，其规模也不可能超过第二轮量化宽松。美联储的资产负债表已经大大超出了正常的规模，这将在很大程度上限制美联储再度扩张的可能。同时，美联储的量化宽松也引发了全球性的资产价格和大宗商品价格上涨，这也在很大程度上导致了其他经济体对美国的责难。第二，我们觉得美联储中止量化宽松的可能性也较低，为了保证美国经济的持续增长，美联储将很可能保持相对较小的量化宽松规模，并逐步退出这一应急性的货币政策措施。

但需要指出的是，美联储宣布的任何关于量化宽松的政策，都可能引发市场担忧其规模逐步缩小甚至退出的可能。对于外汇市场以及大宗商品市场来说，这将成为下周市场面临的一个较大的下行风险。