Gov't to keep new loan target unchanged: report
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China will probably target a limit of about 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in new loans next year, the same as this year's target, a leading official newspaper reported Tuesday, an indication that policy could be slightly looser than expected.
Control of credit issuance is one of the most important monetary policy tools in China and many in the market had assumed that Beijing would lower the new lending objective next year as a way of tamping down on inflationary pressures.
But the report on the front page of the China Securities Journal, citing an unnamed source described as authoritative, suggested otherwise.
"The Chinese economy is very big now and a target of 7.5 trillion yuan in new loans will not trigger all-round inflation," the China Securities Journal quoted the source as saying.
A Reuters poll of 26 economists forecast on Monday that Beijing would aim to reduce the new lending target to 7 trillion yuan ($1.05 trillion) next year.
Most also forecast that the central bank would raise rates before the end of 2010 and twice again in 2011 as part of a campaign to control inflation, which quickened in November to a 28-month high of 5.1 percent.
The China Securities Journal also said the government would likely aim for growth in the wider M2 measure of money supply of 16 percent in 2011, which would mark a slowdown from this year's pace of roughly 20 percent.
"The two targets are consistent with one another and the logic is right, although we still need to wait for the official announcement," said Hu Yuexiao, economist with Shanghai Securities.
China will also use regulatory tools to restrict lending next year, including ordering banks to raise their capital adequacy ratios and to set aside more provisions for bad loans, he said.
China's growth has been a bright spot in an otherwise sluggish world economy following the global financial crisis. But inflationary pressures have also picked up, prompting the central bank to increase bank reserve ratios several times this year and raise interest rates once.
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