China's economic growth to slow in 4th quarter: gov't think tank
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China's economic growth rate was likely to slow in the fourth quarter to 8.7 percent, mainly as a result of economic restructuring, the State Information Center (SIC) said Friday.
The forecast was almost 1 percentage point lower than the third quarter's 9.6-percent growth rate, but the SIC expected the economy to grow by 10 percent for the full year on the back of a 10.6-percent growth rate for the first three quarters.
In a report published in the China Securities Journal, the SIC, a think tank under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), attributed the slowdown to China's intensified efforts in industrial restructuring and eradicating backward production capacity.
The SIC forecast China's industrial production would continue growing fast in the fourth quarter, but at a slower pace of 11.6 percent year on year, compared with 13.5 percent for the third quarter, 15.9 percent in the second quarter and 19.6 percent in the first quarter.
The SIC attributed the slowdown to the authorities' intensified efforts in energy conservation and emissions cutting, strict implementation of measures aiming at curbing housing prices, and slower export growth.
The growth rate of the fixed asset investment was expected to slow to 19.2 percent, as a result of the possible shrinking government investment as local financing platforms come under stricter control, and declining investment in the housing sector.
However, the growth of China's retail sales of consumer goods was expected to remain robust, at 18.5 percent, 3.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The SIC attributed the expanding consumption to rapid increases in household income and expected income distribution reform.
Due to the weakening economic recovery momentum of the developed countries and rising trade protectionism, the SIC expected China's export growth rate to fall sharply in the fourth quarter to an annual growth of 10.9 percent, compared with the 34 percent for the first three quarters.
China's fourth-quarter imports would also grow slower, at an annual rate of 15.3 percent, 27.1 percentage points lower than that of the first three quarters, according to the report.
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