State Council think tank: GDP growth to hit 11%
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China will enjoy a strong economic growth of around 10-11 percent, a leading government economist was quoted as saying Monday.
"Provided that fiscal expenditures achieve their target this year, 2010 GDP growth should be about 10 to 11 percent," Zhang Yutai, head of the Development Research Center of the State Council, China's cabinet, was quoted as saying by the Shanghai Securities News.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 9.1 percent in 2009 and by 9.6 percent in 2008, despite the financial crisis.
The country has maintained over 8 percent of economic growth since 2002, and reached a peak of 11.4 percent in 2007.
In 2010, the country's GDP grew by 11.9 percent in the first quarter, and by 11.1 percent for the first half of the year, according to data cited from the NBS.
By contrast, Wu Xiaoling, a former vice governor of the central bank, said that China should learn to tolerate slower growth as the result of efforts to reconfigure its economy toward more reliance on consumption and less on capital investment.
She said growth could slow to 8 percent in annual terms early next year, but that the government should desist from rolling out a fresh stimulus package to compensate for the weakness.
"When adjusting the economic structure and changing the pattern of expansion, China is sure to encounter a moderation," Wu said in an article in the People's Daily.
J.P.Morgan forecasted China's GDP growth for this year will reach 10.8 percent, even though the country will suffer an economic slowdown in the second half of this year due to rising inflation, yuan revaluation and the unclear of the global economy.
China's exports will likely fall in the second half of this year as developed countries face budget cuts and reduce debt risks, Zhang said.
Investment and consumption, however, in the second half of this year will likely only see small changes, Zhang added.
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