Global recovery stronger than expected
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday that the global recovery is stronger than expected and world output is projected to rise by 4.25 percent this year, but it also warned the outlook remains unusually uncertain, even though a variety of risks have receded.
"The global recovery has evolved better than expected, with activity recovering at varying speeds, tepidly in many advanced economies but solidly in most emerging and developing economies," said the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report.
Multispeed recovery to continue
According to the report, the world economy, which declined by 0. 6 percent in 2009, will recover gradually in 2010 and 2011, growing by 4.2 percent and 4.3 percent respectively.
"Economies that are off to a strong start are likely to remain in the lead, as growth in others is held back by lasting damage to financial sectors and household balance sheets," said the report.
The advanced economies are expected to expand by 2.3 percent this year, and by 2.4 percent in 2011, following a decline in output of more than 3 percent in 2009.
Growth in emerging and developing economies is projected to be over 6.3 percent and 6.5 in 2011, following a modest 2.4-percent gain in 2009.
"Among the advanced economies, the United States is off to a better start than Europe and Japan," said IMF Chief Economist Oliver Blanchard. "Among emerging and developing economies, emerging Asia is leading the recovery, while many emerging European and some Commonwealth of Independent States economies are lagging behind."
The economic growth in the United States, which has been at the center of the global financial storm, is projected to accelerate to 3.1 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2011, following a decline of 2.4 percent in 2009.
Among the hardest hit during the global crisis, Europe is coming out of recession at a slower pace than other regions.
The eurozone economy will grow by 1.0 percent this year and 1.5 in 2011, the IMF said, criticizing the bloc for sizable fiscal and current account imbalances.
In Japan, the IMF expects the output to rise by 1.9 percent this year and 2.0 in 2010, much better the decline of 5.2 percent in 2009.
In both China and India, strong domestic demand will support the recovery, according to the IMF.
In China, GDP growth exceeded the government's 8-percent target in 2009 and is expected to be close to 10 percent in both 2010 and 2011.
"What has been so far mainly a publicly driven growth path, built on infrastructure investment, is expected to turn toward stronger private consumption and investment," said the IMF report.
In India, growth is projected to be 8.8 percent in 2010 and 8.4 percent in 2011, supported by rising private demand.
In this country, "consumption will strengthen as the labor market improves, and investment is expected to be boosted by strong profitability, rising business confidence, and favorable financing conditions," said the IMF.
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