Top energy planners are seeking, in the next five years, to
raise China's coal output to an unprecedented level and, at the
same time, reduce the number of large mining disasters.
China's coal output will be between 2.5 billion and 2.6 billion
tons in 2010, as compared with 2.19 billion tons in 2005, according
to Guo Yuntao, director of the China Development Research Center
for the Coal Industry, in an interview with China
Daily.
The growth rate being forecast by the planning team led by Guo
is much slower than in the last five years, when China's coal
output rose from about 1.3 billion tons in 2000.
The forecast was based on the belief that the overall economy
will become more energy efficient and that demand is likely to rise
significantly only in the power sector, Guo said.
His center is drafting China's coal industry development
blueprint for the coming five years, following the national 11th
Five-year (2006-10) Social and Economic Development Guidelines
approved by National People's Congress (NPC)
deputies at its annual session that closed in Beijing on
Tuesday.
The team is providing the final touches to their draft before
submitting it, at the end of March, for approval by the National Development and Reform
Commission and the State Council, China's cabinet.
Guo said coal will remain China's fundamental energy source,
both for production and consumption.
In terms of production, coal accounted for 76 percent of China's
energy needs in 2005, calculated using the Standard Coal Equivalent
(SCE) measure. According to Guo, that level has a chance to climb
all the way up to 80 percent after 2010.
To satisfy growing domestic energy demands, the country will
decrease its coke exports in the coming years, the planning
director said.
China's rapidly growing economy, which is expected to register
an annual growth rate of 7.5 percent for its gross domestic product
(GDP) this year, will create enormous demand for energy supplies.
But the nation's energy conservation campaign is just beginning,
which should mean higher energy efficiency.
China's energy consumption record was an average 1.43 tons of
SCE for every 10,000 yuan (US$1,234) of GDP in 2005. This is the
same as 2004, despite the central government's pledge to
significantly reduce energy waste from 2006 to 2010.
Guo said the coal plan was not only "a blueprint for producing
more, but also a program for resource conservation and work
safety."
Large accidents
Guo said the industry's authorities will try hard to prevent
large accidents particularly ones killing 100 miners or more. "That
will be a major task for the industry," he said.
In stark contrast with planned goals, 2005 was a tragic year as
there were four major accidents. Since 1949, there have been a
total of just 22 similar-sized accidents in China.
He said the country will streamline its small-scale coal mines
and speed up construction of 13 national-level production bases,
each capable of turning out over 100 million tons of coal annually.
These will be in coal-rich regions such as
Shanxi,
Shaanxi, and
Inner Mongolia.
Zhao Tiechui, head of the State Administration of Coal Mine
Safety Supervision, recently said that China would shut down 4,000
small coal mines annually over the next three years. "We can keep
at most 10,000 or so small coal mines," said Zhao, who also
promised to drastically reduce major accidents within two
years.
China now has 24,000 small coal mines with an annual production
capacity ranging from 10,000 tons to 30,000 tons. They account for
70 percent of the total number of coal mines.
Small coal mines have not only led to serious resource waste and
pollution, but also threatened work safety, said Guo. "Closing them
down won't affect the country's overall output," he pledged.
He said the 13 large production bases were enough to help China
meet its growing demand.
(China Daily March 18, 2006)