The abuse of Iraqi prisoners by American and British soldiers
has shocked the world, and with each passing day more photos or
reports come to light. How will the affair affect the situation in
Iraq and how will US President George W. Bush deal with the
problem? Zhao Weiming, deputy head of the Middle East Study
Institute of Shanghai International Studies University and a noted
expert on Middle Eastern affairs, spoke with the Shanghai
Morning Post about these issues.
Shanghai Morning Post: Will the disclosure of
prisoner abuse photos lead to more attacks on American and British
soldiers or escalate the conflict?
Zhao Weiming: The maltreatment of Iraqi prisoners has
cost America its grounds of morality and justice in Iraq and
aroused global fury. A year later, America has not been able to
back up its justifications for starting the war. That means it is
unjust. The abuse scandal badly damages America’s already-weak
image and with the increase of anger, all Iraqi people may fight
against the American invasion.
SMP: Bush and Blair apologized some time after the
disclosure of the affair. Can their apologies assuage people’s
resentment?
ZW: Bush and Blair apologized after the affair was
disclosed, but their apologies were reluctant, untimely and forced.
Their apologies are not sincere and only aim to appease domestic
indignation and anti-American sentiment in Iraq. There are more
than 1,000 of these photos. America will try the people involved
and the victims will receive material and mental compensation, but
the effects of the affair will continue.
SMP: The scandal has reduced support for Bush to the
lowest level this year. Will it result in his defeat in the
election?
ZW: The prisoner maltreatment reflects American
unilateralism. America attacked the sovereign country of Iraq
without the permission of the United Nations, and now it is even
showing its contempt for the Geneva Convention. Without question,
America’s image is damaged. With the disclosure of more
maltreatment photos, Bush’s support will continue to drop.
SMP: US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld or other
senior military officials are likely to become scapegoats in the
affair. Bush is supporting Rumsfeld. What is his aim? If he does
not abandon Rumsfeld, how will Bush protect himself?
ZW: So far, Bush has supported Rumsfeld because the
defense secretary is an important policy maker and performer on his
team. As Bush now is facing Iraqi power transfer, antiterrorism
efforts and the elections, by supporting Rumsfeld he is protecting
himself. As the affair develops, Bush may sacrifice Rumsfeld to
protect himself.
SMP: How will America and the UK end the scandal?
Although Bush has consistently stated that he will not withdraw
from Iraq, if the affair does not cool down within a short time
will he change his mind?
ZW: Bush has consistently stated that he will not retreat
from Iraq, but the maltreatment scandal will further aggravate the
situation there. If American casualties go beyond what the American
people can bear and they lose confidence in the Iraq situation, the
government will come under immense pressure and will retreat from
Iraq. America had a military victory, but it lost the war in terms
of politics, morality and justice.
(China.org.cn translated by Feng Yikun, May 18, 2004)