Recently Japan, China's biggest neighbor in East Asia, expressed its great concern over China's SARS epidemic and provided huge monetary and material support. Moreover a Japanese delegation headed by the secretaries general of the three ruling coalition parties in Japan paid a visit to Beijing in May when most countries dared not come. So Sino-Japanese relations seem to have improved against such a background.

It is worth notice though that the leaders of both sides didn't mention a single word on the historic problems of their bilateral ties, as they had always done before. Instead, they said they were drawing lessons from history. According to Chinese official reports, the leaders of both sides stressed the vital importance of Sino-Japanese relations, saying to aim at long-term interests and the entirety of bilateral relations.

For quite a time, some leading Chinese media suggested that China and Japan should set aside their historical issues, or at least, free the development of bilateral ties from the interference of so-called problems of history. Such words certainly draw the attention of the Japanese government.

So, can Sino-Japanese relations really surpass the historical problems? Considering the complexity of their relations, it is clearly not an easy matter.

The so-called historical problems between the two countries are not just a political issue, but a social one too. China and Japan might manage it effectively in the light of the wisdom of their statesmen and the counting of national interests. Yet the precondition for both sides bears the same political will to be friendly. For its part, Japan, as colonists and invaders in history, must face their history sincerely. Meanwhile, China, its past victim, should learn to trust Japan, and get rid of its shadow.

However, the historical problem may not be that simple to tackle. First of all, the problem is a realistic question because it is still active. The current obstacles in Sino-Japanese relations are mostly from history. Take territory disputes for example, the Diaoyu Islands is a question left over from World War II. Despite the Chinese government's restrain, the Japanese government has constantly been trying to legalize its occupation of the Diaoyu Islands together with its right-of-centre organizations, which is viewed as being disrespectful of the feelings of the Chinese people across the world.

Furthermore, is Japan's open approval of Taiwan's WHO application really in consideration of its public health? What lies beneath is Japan's strategy to strengthen its ties with Taiwan comprehensively.

Early in November 2002, one report on Japanese foreign policy strategy, issued by a think tank of Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, called for Japan to enhance its relations with Taiwan. The point being that Taiwan's importance in Sino-Japanese relations is the same as that in Sino-US relations. Taiwan is also an historical problem to some extent. As a result, the close contacts between Taiwan and Japan will certainly hinder the development of Sino-Japanese relations.

To make it more complicated, over the past two years, Japan has successfully completed a series of domestic law legislation in the atmosphere of the Anti-Terrorism War, the Iraqi War and the Korean Nuclear Crisis. With the help of these new laws, Japan's Peace Constitution became empty and it could rearm itself legally. Of this, the Japanese Prime Minister declared openly: "Japanese Self-Defense Force is the army of Japan."

So far Japan has not yet armed itself though the voice of rearmament is getting louder and louder there. In theory, the rearmament of Japan does not necessarily lead to the revival of militarism in Japan, but, the fact is that the trend of political conservatism and new nationalism keeps rising.

Once Japan rearms itself, it might completely deny the existence of any historical problems either with China or with Asia. A rearmed Japan with no correct historical view will turn out to be an uncertain and unstable factor in East Asia.

Chinese perceptions and requirements of Japan are loosening due to the importance of Sino-Japanese cooperation in East Asia Cooperation. A smooth Sino-Japanese relationship would not only help China to play a bigger role in East Asia, but also serve as the key factor in East Asian Cooperation.

In this regard, China, Southeast Asia and some other places in East Asia, all hold the same view. It is highly expected that China and Japan will work hard to improve their relationship and shoulder leadership in this region.

However, things are not quite that simple. Japan has always been watching China's rapid development within its own political standard. In fact, Japan does not sincerely embrace China as a rising regional power.

By now, Japan still regards itself as the most important country in Asia. In diplomatic language, Japan repeats again and again that it welcomes China's reform and development, and is willing to participate in China's modernization. Yet these words only represent Japan's sense of superiority. That's why Japan stresses that it is the most important part of the West (the second world economic power) and Japan is the only Asian country to join the G8 club.

In fact, looking back on the development of relations between Japan and East Asia over the past ten years, we need not to care too much of Sino-Japanese relations. The myth Japan created as a development model has faded out. As the world enters into the 21st century, Japan is suffering many problems in its political and economic structure.

After the Cold War, Japan could not work as the motor of economic development in East Asia because of its long economic recession. So even if Japan does not want to contribute its power function to East Asian cooperation, China along with ASEAN to the south, South Korea to the north can entirely replace Japan and build up the cooperative structure in East Asia.

Moreover, Japan does not like to focus on Asia only. Though Japan has already begun talks with Asian countries on the free trade zone including Australia, Japan gives priority to global multilateral free trade talks.

Still, Japan eyes its relations with the US as vital for its foreign policy. In security, Japan still relies on the US also. For example, Japan wants to use the US force to diffuse the nuclear threat posed by Democratic People's Republic of Korea. In strategic terms, Japan needs to count on American power to balance China's influence. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, no matter how the Sino-Japanese relations change, this is unlikely to weaken. That is to say, Japan can never improve its ties with China at the expense of those with the US.

To strengthen Sino-Japanese relations is common wisdom, yet historical problems have always been its biggest interference. China really needs to consolidate its friendly relations with Japan. However, Rome was not built in a day, and good will cannot be based on wishful thinking.

(The author is a research fellow in the International Studies Institute at Tsinghua University)

(China.org.cn translated by Zheng Guihong, June 20, 2003)