China will maintain its steady monetary policy and there are no plans to cut interest rates for Renminbi deposits in the near future. This is the message from a senior official with the central bank.

No Interest Rate Cut Next Year

Xie Ping is director-general of the Research Department of the People's Bank of China. He said that measures would first be finalized at the working conference this month then sent on to the National People's Congress for approval in March of next year.

He expects public sector borrowing will continue to grow next year reaching levels of say 1.5 trillion (US$180 billion) or 1.6 trillion yuan (US$190 billion). There will be a moderate increase in monetary supply with narrow money (M1) up 15 percent and broad money (M2) up 10 percent.

Xie emphasized that the current interest rate of 1.89 percent should be viewed as a base line with no possibility of further interest rate cuts. And the central bank's own rediscount rate can't be adjusted in the short term, even if it seems high. He also denounced any suggestion that China exports deflation to other countries.

Direct Financing Ratio

This year enterprises have raised only a modest 5 percent of new funds by direct financing through the stock market This is just half of the highest ever figure of 10 percent and does not compare favorably with last year's 8 percent. It reflects a securities market, which is less vigorous than last year.

Xie suggests that wherever possible, enterprises should seek to raise new finance directly through the capital market rather than just taking on more debt by extending their borrowings from the banks. In the first ten months of the current year enterprises raised some 74 billion yuan (US$9 billion) on the stock market, 48 billion yuan (US$5.8 billion) less than the same period last year. It shows that China's capital market still has quite some way to go to catch up with international practice.

Saving Hit Record High

Personal savings are expected to reach 8.47 trillion yuan (US$1.02 trillion) this year, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan (US$145 billion). Deposit accounts with instant access account for about 32 percent of the total and 41 percent of this increment. One-year term deposits are also popular.

Xiu points to these huge funds on deposit as indicative of a continuing reluctance to invest. Many ordinary people are content to aim meantime for a short-term, risk-free return of about 2 percent.

A listless stock market and falling consumer prices are contributing factors. But most significant is an average figure for personal wealth still below 10,000 yuan (US$1209). People just don't want to take a chance with their savings.

(china.org.cn by Tang Fuchun December 12, 2002)