Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is facing mounting external pressure to sign a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-brokered power transition deal and has been warned not to return to his country.
Observers argued that Saleh's political career has ended and his return is of no significance, saying that a national unity government has become the most applicable solution to the Yemeni crisis.
Saleh, convalescing in Saudi Arabia after surgeries for burns he suffered in an assassination attempt inside his compound in Sanaa on June 3, was reported to have decided not to come back home, with some reports saying he was persuaded by Saudi and U.S. officials.
"The return of Saleh is no longer important as if he has been working over the past years to enable his son to stay after he leaves," said Abdul Ghanial-Maweri, a political analyst in Sanaa.
The government dismissed the reports that Saleh would not return to Yemen and insists that he will come back after recuperation. Only the Yemeni people can decide who rules them and the international community is only pushing the Yemeni parties to hold a constructive dialogue, not holding back the president, ruling party officials said.
"Saleh's departure for treatment in Saudi Arabia after the June bomb was a secure, political exit for him. His return will explode the situation in Yemen," said Faris al-Saqqaf, head of the Future Studies Center, adding that the health and security status of Saleh will not help him rule again.
"Recent pressure on Saleh to sign the GCC-brokered power transition deal and warnings not to return home meant one thing: the international community has decided to pull Saleh out of politics to start an immediate power transfer in his country and reconcile all parties including the ruling party," al-Saqqaf said.
"Hence, any agreement in the future will be based on the reconciliation among all political forces in Yemen," he said.
Meanwhile, talk about the GCC plan has reemerged in Riyadh mediated by the Saudi government and UN envoy.
Opposition officials affirmed that their demands have not changed: a power transfer and an army and security restructuring first and then dialogue and the ballot boxes.
"We need a national army to protect our agreement, because we can't rely on the international community or external guarantees to do that," said Muhammad Abdul Malik al-Mutawakil, a senior leader of the Yemeni opposition coalition Joint Meeting Parties.
Observers also said that the stay of Saleh in Saudi Arabia is part of his victory against the people calling for his ouster, as others argued that Saleh has been and will continue to be a card in the hands of the Saudis.
"A national unity government according to the GCC plan seems to be the best solution to lifting Yemen out of its problems, though I believe that Saleh will continue to rule Yemen from Saudi Arabia after he leaves," said Anis Mansour, an Aden-based political analyst.