China's Economy Stabilized with a Better Performance Trend While Its Upturn Yet to Consolidate



In the first half of 2009, all regions and departments effectively implemented the policies and measures set by the central government on fighting against the global financial crisis and promoting the sound and fast growth of national economy, overcame the difficulties in the progress, the national economy stabilized to recovery with increasing positive changes.

According to preliminary estimation, in the first half of this year, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 13,986.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1 percent, which was 1.0 percentage point faster than that in the first quarter. In terms of growth by quarters, it was up 6.1 percent for the first quarter, and 7.9 percent for the second. In terms of growth by sectors, the value added of the primary industry was 1,202.5 billion yuan, up by 3.8 percent; that of the secondary industry was 7,007.0 billion yuan, up by 6.6 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 5,776.7 billion yuan, up by 8.3 percent.

1. The output of summer grain increased for six consecutive years, and production of animal husbandry industry kept steady growth. The total output of summer grain was 123.35 million tons, an increase of 2.60 million tons, up 2.2 percent, which was the sixth successive year of increased output. Of this total, 2.50 million tons of grain was brought by expanding acreage, which accounted for more than 96 percent of the total increased output. In the first half of this year, the total output of pork, beef and mutton reached 35.80 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 6.3 percent. The output of pork reached 23.63 million tons, up by 8.1 percent. The total stock of pigs rose by 3.9 percent while the number of slaughtered pigs grew by 7.9 percent.

2. The industrial production picked up quickly, and the decreasing rate of profits made by industrial enterprises slowed down. In the first half of this year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up 7.0 percent year-on-year (10.7 percent in June), or 9.3 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2008. Of this total, the growth in the first quarter was 5.1 percent, and that in the second quarter was 9.1 percent. Analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 1.7 percent; collective enterprises, 5.9 percent; share-holding enterprises, 9.4 percent; and 1.2 percent growth for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan province. The year-on-year growth of heavy industry was 6.6 percent, and 8.2 percent for the light industry. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 36 divisions kept year-on-year growth. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions went up by 5.9 percent, 6.8 percent and 13.2 percent respectively. The production and marketing of industrial products went on well. In the first half of this year, the sales ratio of industrial products was 97.2 percent.

In the first five months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 850.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9 percent, narrowed down by 14.4percentage points as compared with that in January and February period. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 19 divisions registered year-on-year drop with profits while certain divisions kept fast growth or reversed from loss to profit making. The growth went up 17.1 percent for food manufacturing, and 16.6 percent for the manufacture of textile wearing apparel, footwear and caps. The divisions of ferrous metal smelting and pressing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and pressing made profits of 2.6 billion yuan and 9.6 billion yuan whereas they suffered losses of 0.8 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan in the first two months of this year respectively.

3. Investment in fixed assets enjoyed fast growth with improved investment structure. In the first half of this year, the investment in fixed assets of the country was 9,132.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 33.5 percent, or a rise of 7.2 percentage points as compared with the growth in the same period last year. The investment in urban areas reached 7,809.8 billion yuan, up by 33.6 percent (35.3 percent growth in June), or 6.8 percentage points higher while that in rural areas was 1,322.3 billion yuan, up by 32.7 percent, or a rise of 9.5 percentage points. Of the total urban investment in fixed assets, that in the primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry in urban areas went up by 68.9 percent, 29.0 percent and 36.6 percent respectively. The investment in eastern, central and western regions grew by 26.7 percent, 38.1 percent and 42.1 percent respectively. The investment in infrastructures (excluding electricity) went up by 57.4 percent, of which, that in railway transportation, up by 126.5 percent, that in road transportation, up 54.7 percent, and that in management of water conservancy, environment and public facilities, up by 54.5 percent; the increase in investment in health, social security and social welfare was 71.3 percent, and that in culture, sports and entertainment was 57.1 percent.

4. Sales on domestic markets continued to accelerate, with higher growth rate at or below county level than that in cities. In the first half of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5,871.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 15.0 percent (up by 15.0 percent in June), and the real growth was16.6 percent after deducting the price factors, which was 3.7 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The retail sales in cities reached 3,983.3 billion yuan, up by 14.4 percent, and the retail sales at and below county level stood at 1,887.8 billion yuan, up by 16.4 percent. Grouped by different sectors, the sales by wholesale and retail businesses went up by 14.7 percent, that by lodging and catering industry up by 18.1 percent. Among the sales by wholesale and retail businesses above designated size, the sales of furniture and vehicles witnessed growth of 28.3 percent and 18.1 percent respectively.

5. The growth rate of consumer prices continued to decline while the year-on-year change of producers' prices witnessed large margin decline. In the first half of this year, the consumer price index went down by 1.1 percent (1.7 percent decrease in June and its month-on-month change down by 0.5 percentage point). The price dropped by 1.3 percent in cities and 0.6 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for tobacco, liquor and articles rose by 1.7 percent, price for household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.3 percent, health care and personal articles up by 1.1 percent; prices for food down by 0.3 percent, clothing down by 2.4 percent. Transportation and communication down by 2.5 percent, recreation, education, culture articles and services down by 0.7 percent, and housing down by 3.9 percent. In the first half of this year, the retail prices of commodities dropped by 1.4 percent year on year (2.3 percent down in June). The producers' prices for manufactured goods went down by 5.9 percent (7.8 percent down in June). The purchaser's prices for raw materials, fuel and power decreased by 8.7 percent (by 11.2 percent in June). The year-on-year growth of the prices for housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities went down by 0.8 percent (0.2 percent up in June).

6. The foreign trade continued to drop sharply with a slight decrease of trade surplus. The total value of imports and exports for the first half was US$ 946.1 billion, down by 23.5 percent year-on-year. The value of exports was US$ 521.5 billion, down by 21.8 percent, and the value of imports was US$ 424.6 billion, down 25.4 percent. The trade surplus was US$ 96.9 billion, a decrease of US$ 2.1 billion over the same period last year.

7. The income of urban and rural residents continued to grow with large increase in transfer income. In the first half of this year, the per capita income of urban households was 9,667 yuan. Of this total, the per capita disposable income of urban population was 8,856 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.8 percent, or a real growth of 11.2 after deducting price factors. Of the per capita income of urban residents, the income from wages and salaries was 6,394 yuan, up by 11.1 percent, transfer income was 2,273 yuan, up 16.0 percent, net income from operations was 778 yuan, up 3.9 percent, and the property income was 222, up by 9.1 percent. The per capita cash income of rural population was 2,733 yuan, up by 8.1 percent year-on-year, or 8.1 percent growth in real term. Of this total, the income from wages and salaries was 954 yuan, up by 8.4 percent, income from household operations was 1,512 yuan, up 5.5 percent, property income 78 yuan, up 9.9 percent, and the transfer income was 189 yuan, up by 31.4 percent.

8. The money supply grew rapidly with sharp increase in loans of financial institutions. By the end of June, the supply of broad money (M2) was 56.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 28.5 percent, which was 10.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year; that of the narrow money (M1) was 19.3 trillion yuan, a rise of 24.8 percent, or 15.7 percentage points higher; and the cash in circulation (M0) was 3.4 trillion yuan, up by 11.5 percent or 1.2 percentage points lower. The amount of outstanding loans of all financial institutions was 37.7 trillion yuan, increased by 7.4 trillion yuan over that at the beginning of this year, or a rise of 4.9 trillion yuan as compared with the same period last year. The amount of outstanding deposits of all financial institutions was 56.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.0 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year, or 5.0 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.

There are many difficulties and challenges existing in current national economic performance. The base for recovery is still infirm, the momentum for picking up is unstable, the recovery pattern is unbalanced, and thus there are still uncertain and volatile factors in the recovering progress. In the coming period, we should thoroughly apply the scientific approach on development, adhere to the decisions made by the central government on economic work, uphold the proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies, fully implement the measures for fighting against the international financial crisis, further enhance the relevance, effectiveness and sustainability of policies, make efforts in consolidating and promoting the recovery momentum of economy, pay more attention to secure and improve people's livelihood, vigorously promote the structural adjustment and independent innovation, accelerate the nurturing of new growth points, improve the quality of economic recovery and make our efforts to realize a sound and fast growth of the national economy.