A country's economic growth is supposedly, and rightly, the sum
of those of all its regions. But sometimes things are not so
simple.
The National Development and Reform Commission revealed on
Monday that in the first half of this year, the 31 provinces and
regions on the Chinese mainland each witnessed a double-digit gross
domestic product (GDP) growth. Their overall growth rate would be
12 percent.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put the national figure
for the same period at 10.9 percent. The 1.1 percentage points
would mean a yawning gap of 80.48 billion yuan (US$10.06
billion).
Experts generally take the gap as a result of the numbers game
played by local governments, not the central government's desire to
play down the partially overheating economy.
This sounds plausible, at least.
Local officials have a reputation for padding their GDP figures.
They have either technically been loose in investigation and
collection of the figures or just purposefully balloon them up to
show how adept they are in managing the economy.
The central statisticians have repeatedly condemned the local
behavior, but there were few signs of improvement, at least until
now.
It is said that every year, the NBS has to take pains to peel
off part of the GDP growth reported by the local authorities so
that the figures it finally releases could match the real economic
scenario.
The local doctoring of economic figures is detestable and may
shake the authority of the country's statistical work if it goes
unchecked.
The central authorities, however, must reflect on why such
blatant behavior could have gone wild, and find a way out.
Thus far, they have relied on double-checking to find and
correct local problems. But local officials seldom are seriously
punished for their mistakes, which is what the Statistics Law has
stipulated.
Admittedly, the weak implementation of the law has encouraged
local officials to act willfully.
One the other hand, a change in the official career appraisal
system would be more demanding. When GDP is no longer the paramount
index to gauge officials' career successes, things should
improve.
Making local statisticians independent of local influence is
another option. Currently, they are financially supported by local
governments, which also have a say in their promotion.
The ultimate way out is to publish those provincial figures and
make the local officials more accountable to the public so that
effective supervision could be put in place.
(China Daily August 9, 2006)