One cannot but observe with trepidation Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's call, on January 16, for a referendum regarding the island's relations with the Chinese mainland.

What he is attempting to do is to use the referendum issues to bolster his chances in his uphill battle in Taiwan's upcoming "presidential" elections.

In the first place, Chen points his finger to mainland missiles that are meant, as proclaimed by the government of the People's Republic, to deter any attempt for Taiwan independence. At the same time he asks the public to support his periodic efforts to place orders with overseas suppliers for the purchase of military equipment.

This is a blatant attempt to utilize the United States, the islands' biggest arms supplier, as a chessman in Chen's own game.

Secondly, Chen asks the public to allow him to work towards building a "framework of peace" to cover both sides of the Taiwan Straits -- even though he has never demonstrated sincerity in achieving that aim.

This is to imply the mainland is a threat to Taiwan's present state of existence, and set it up as a target for scapegoating and windmill fighting during his election campaign.

Not long ago in a statement of his would-be fight against the mainland, Chen even went so far as to use the fanatic term "holy war."

Lastly, the call for the referendum, in the form of a top-to-bottom presidential proposal backed by 500 million new Taiwan dollars (US$14.84 million) worth of public funding, is an insult to Chen's own constituency. For its aim is basically to affirm the "president" himself to carry on the game that he's been playing all along.

What's the point, after all?

The point is to mobilize all resources to support the "holy war" for Chen's own power. He is his own mandate. All the rhetoric that he uses, whether calling for democracy or peace, and all the things he does, whether clamouring for a referendum or making military purchases, are but carefully orchestrated stunts, staged at a time when nothing practical is being done to answer public concerns about the island's economic woes and worsening cross-Straits relations.

A quick referral to the man's recent track record reveals much.

Despite a pledge in his May 2000 inaugural address not to pursue a referendum on reunification vs independence, Chen unveiled his three-part plan in September 2003 -- first to hold the "defensive referendum" in 2004, then write Taiwan independence into its "constitution" in 2006, and finally to start implementing it in 2008.

The plan has exposed his ultimate aim of using the referendum to pave the way for his separatist scheme, and has drawn blunt warnings from both Beijing and Washington.

It was only after getting the cold shoulder from the international community, and even warnings on his consequence to upset the cross-Straits status quo, that Chen was forced to change. He had to tone down his belligerent propaganda and show his critics one or two signs of flexibility.

Chen's habit of heart never seems to change, however. He is always ready to grasp every opportunity to hijack all important relations -- those between Chinese mainland and the United States, those between the mainland and Taiwan, and even those between the United States and Taiwan -- to serve his own agenda. But Chen's somersaults cannot reach unlimited height. Chinese mainland and the United States are co-operating on so many issues, and their relationship is far more important than can be overshadowed by his military purchases.

After bearing witness to so many of Chen's flip-flops, the United States sees increasingly clear evidence about who is making trouble in the Taiwan Straits.

In the meantime, the mainland will continue to grow in political and economic importance in the world.

For Taiwan, there is nothing Chen can do to replace its internal politics with Beijing-baiting. He will achieve even less by disconnecting its myriad of peaceful and mutually beneficial ties with the mainland.

(China Daily January 20, 2004)