Some topics seem to routinely pop up in conversations and debates.

One such subject is the "Three Links" or, more specifically, direct flight across the Straits. It has become a recurrent theme in election-related discussions in Taiwan ever since Chen Shui-bian coined the phrase "three stages towards direct flight" and his administration came up with the "Cross-Straits Direct Flight Assessment Report."

Does this mean the Taiwan administration has suddenly embraced the policy again, or is it simply a smoke-and-mirrors contrivance?

Playing the direct-flight card at this particular time does not mean the Taiwan administration has had a momentous policy change. As a matter of fact, it is designed to serve one basic purpose -- that of winning next year's election.

First, it tacks direct flight onto the "one side, one country" concept, a theory it means to promote. Chen Shui-bian insists that cross-Straits direct flight be implemented within this framework, meaning that the Chinese mainland would have to give up the one-China principle. The assessment report is also built around the same framework.

Tsai Ying-wen, head of the "mainland affairs council," asserted that the "one side, one country" or "one China" question must be sorted out and differences in negotiations smoothed before any direct flight can take off. The crux of her argument is to use direct flight to push the "one side, one country" tenet into the Taiwan mainstream and force the mainland to accept it.

Second, direct flight is being used as an election tool. Now that winning votes has become the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration's central task, direct flight has been turned into the stone intended to kill many birds simultaneously. It is meant to ease public pressures and pass the blame to the mainland. It can also serve as a response to the Taiwan business community, which has been demanding it for years. If the mainland rejects it, the DPP administration would accuse it of being insincere; if it accepts it, the DPP would interpret it as the mainland being susceptible to their beliefs.

Whatever the outcome, Chen can say he is not at fault and, at the same time, highlight the impartiality of his stance.

This scheme can win over middle-of-the-road voters who may view his three stages of "preparation, negotiation and practice" as a grand but pragmatic vision. It is also an attempt to keep the initiative in topics for debate in his own hands. Since the opposition forces of the Pan Blue Coalition have advocated stability and three direct links, Chen can steal the limelight by snatching the hot topic and hogging the conversation.

The plan to inaugurate flights in southern Taiwan first could create an imbalance that would exclude Songshan Airport, which the city of Taipei has been actively seeking to incorporate, and also consolidate the DPP's voter base in the south, effectively damaging the power base in the north that belongs to the Pan Blue forces.

And, as a supporting measure of its economic policy, direct flight could help show off the DPP's resolve on economic growth.

The third purpose is to improve relations between Taiwan and the United States. A healthy Sino-US relationship had led to the US Government repeatedly opposing the DPP administration's attempts at a "referendum." US businessmen in Taiwan have long called for cross-Straits direct flights as soon as possible. Chen tossed out this topic partly to appeal to the US position and win American support.

Although the Taiwan administration wants people to believe direct flight is just around the corner, the public is intelligent enough to know it is still just a beautiful cloud floating in the sky. According to opinion polls conducted by local media, 57 per cent of Taiwan residents endorse the direct-flight policy, but 67 per cent do not think it will take place by the end of next year. Only 12 per cent are optimistic about the possibility.

This contradiction is thought-provoking.

The DPP administration has created too many barriers to direct flight. Examined from the base up, first comes the technical barrier, which includes negotiation methods. Then there is the exaggeration of the negative impact such a move would have on Taiwan's economy, including the employment situation, agriculture and investment, glossing over the potential positive effects that people are enthusiastic about.

The third barrier involves the "impact on Taiwan's security," intended to increase public hostility towards the mainland.

The framework of the "one side, one country" doctrine, with its emphasis on "sovereignty," is just an excuse to hinder direct-flight efforts. Another obstacle is "national acceptance," which the DPP administration claims direct flight would erode.

All of these impediments have transformed a simple economic subject into a political controversy, binding it up in miles of political shackles.

Any one of the above-mentioned barriers could derail the policy, but the most important one is the DPP's top priority of "Taiwan independence," which has politicized an issue that concerns the interests of people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits.

Flip-flops and reversals have been a favourite tactic with the Taiwan leadership. Every time there is an election, someone dangles the topic of direct flight as bait for the voters. Every time the economy slumps, the public gets to hear promises about direct flight. The same lure has been used again and again, from the days of Lee Teng-hui to those of Chen Shui-bian. And to this day, it remains an illusion.

A study shows that over the past four years Chen has proposed the direct flight policy 12 times. But he has also opposed it eight times. How do people know when he is speaking his true mind? Perhaps it is better to judge him by his actions.

Ever since the three-links policy was first put forward by the mainland, most Chinese people and those who care about both sides of the Straits have realized it would be good for both economies, especially for Taiwan's. Direct flight may not jump-start Taiwan's economy, but delaying execution of the policy would only marginalize it. Those people in Taiwan with the wisdom to see direct flight as beneficial to the local economy agree that the subject should not be scorched by political heat.

Wang Yong-ching, the famous Taiwan businessman, once stated that the three links would have no adverse effect on Taiwan's security. Failure to make it happen will only put Taiwan in a self-imposed straitjacket.

Just as Wang deplored the snail's pace in instituting the policy, more and more people have become aware that it is the Taiwan administration's political thinking that has prevented direct flights from taking off.

The author is an associate researcher with the Taiwan Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily September 9, 2003)