All those who love peace in this world wish we live in a nuclear-free world. Unfortunately, due to widely known reasons, our global village has already stored 14,500 nuclear heads which are enough to wipe out mankind for more than 100 times. Thus, 178 countries have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in the hope that the nuclear weapons will not proliferate any more.

Meanwhile, the international community also don't like to impose sanctions on or resort to arms to any country in order to stop the latter's nuclear program. There are enough lessons to draw if one looks at the Iraqi people's suffering from the 13-year-old United Nations (UN) sanctions and the country's extended conflicts and wars.

Now Iran's nuclear crisis has come to a cross.

Representatives from the five major nuclear powers are gathering in London to discuss how to deal with Iran's resumption of uranium enrichment. The European Union (EU) Troika -- Britain, France and Germany -- have announced to cancel their talks with Iran scheduled for Wednesday. They plan to join the United States to push the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to pass a resolution on Iran's nuclear issue in order to submit to the UN Security Council. Russia's stance also has subtle changes. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has recently expressed that Iran's recent resumption of uranium enrichment made people suspect Iran seeks military purpose under the pretext of nuclear fuel program. The move indicates that sanctions are approaching Iran.

With precedence of Iraq and Libya, Iran is quite clear about what sanctions mean. However, this wouldn't shake Iran's determination to seek nuclear technology because current Iranian leaders believe that its national security, status of a power, state sovereignty and national pride are all related to the nuclear technology. To abandon it will seriously weaken the authoritativeness and foundation of the Islamic authority, the price seems to be higher than a sanction.

US dilemma in Iraq has made it unable to attack Iran militarily in the near future, on the contrary, it might need Iran's help. Iranian decision-makers will definitely not miss such a hard-to-come opportunity to develop its nuclear technology. From last August to January, within only 4 months, Iran has resumed uranium enrichment and conversion, "seizing the hour, seizing the day."

Sanctions are actually double edged. It strikes the punished, but hurts the punisher too.

Iran is the world's No. 4 oil producer and No. 2 oil exporter in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In case of sanctions on Iran, major European oil companies such as Total, Shell and BP would all have to withdraw from Iran and the EU and Japan, which heavily rely on Iranian oil, would face severe shortage of oil.

Russia would also have to stop its cooperation with Iran in nuclear technology and its high turnover sales of weapons to Iran. International oil price would soar and world economy would be affected.

It's also predictable that once being sanctioned, Iran would immediately withdraw from the NPT and freely develop its nuclear technology. Once isolated, Iran and its people would oppose America and other western countries with a stronger anger, and a more extreme political force would be pushed onto the political stage.

Many more possible chain effects of sanctions will be unpredictable. Therefore, the EU and the US, with strong words on Iran, are still at the stage of threatening to impose sanctions to deter Iran. Before the "big stick" is wielded, the issue is subject to the IAEA's voting. If the EU and the US can't get a majority here, there will be no way for the issue to be referred to the UN Security Council.

Even if the IAEA passed the resolution, it would remain difficult to predict if the Security Council will pass a resolution. Meanwhile, Iran is not pressure to waiting idly to be sanctioned. It's already used its oil weapon to impose pressure on the EU, Japan and many other Non-Aligned Movement countries.

Because the bottom line of the two sides is beyond conciliation, Iranian nuclear crisis is really a difficult diplomatic problem.

However, to solve the problem, it needs political wisdom, but not threat or threat to use force because the latter can only end up a situation where neither side gains and reveal the incompetence of the authority.
 
The article by former Chinese Ambassador to Iran Hua Liming is carried on the front page of People's Daily Overseas Edition, Jan. 16, and translated by People's Daily Online.

(People's Daily January 18, 2006)