The mainland stock market will become one of the world's most attractive financial centers this year in terms of new share issues, or initial public offerings (IPOs), financial analysts have said.

In the second half of the year, in particular, the Chinese mainland stock market (combining the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen) is expected to raise 1.1 trillion yuan ($144 billion) - an eight-fold increase over the first half.

According to Bloomberg, the 44 IPOs in the A-share market raised 124 billion yuan ($16.5 billion) in the first half, compared with 106 IPOs on the New York Stock Exchange Group (merged with Euronext), which raised $46 billion.

In a breakdown by category, companies registered and listed overseas, or red-chips, and mainland-based firms listed overseas, or H-shares, are likely to absorb 250 billion yuan ($33 billion) once they issue A shares to domestic investors, according to Zhang Gang, an analyst with Southwest Securities.

The continuing restructuring of shareholding in State-owned enterprises will generate demand for 426.4 billion yuan ($56 billion) once the reform is completed this year. 

Other Chinese companies are expected to raise another 419.5 billion yuan ($55 billion) on the A-share market.

So they "represent a demand for large amount of money in the A-share market," said Zhang Qi from Haitong Securities.

"The regulators will have to watch the market closely. If liquidity does not look good, IPOs may be postponed."

However, She Minhua, an analyst with Beijing-based CITIC China Securities, believes the A-share market will be awash with liquidity in the second half despite the recent central bank move to hike the interest rate and the government decision to cut the tax on interest income from 20 percent to 5 percent.

"The real deposit interest rate is still in negative territory, considering June's CPI rise to 4.4 percent. Bank deposits may absorb part of the liquidity from the stock market, but not that much," he said.

Among the largest companies that are likely to offer domestic IPOs are China Coal Energy, PetroChina, and some red-chips listed in Hong Kong.

China Coal Energy Co Ltd, the nation's second-largest coal producer by sales, was the most recent H-share company to announce its domestic listing plan. In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange on July 16, it said it planned to issue 1.5 billion yuan ($197 million) worth of shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

PetroChina, a subsidiary of China's largest oil producer China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), announced in early June that it will issue up to 4 billion yuan ($526 million) worth of shares in Shanghai.

According to the Hong Kong stock exchange, by the end of May, 22 of the 93 red chip companies met the requirements to list in the mainland.

The A-share market has seen IPOs surge since earlier this month. According to Shanghai-based Wind Data, six companies have launched IPOs this month, raising 18 billion yuan ($2.4 billion), equal to the amount raised in the previous two months.

(China Daily July 25 2007)