When the mainland lifted its one-year ban on issuing new shares in May, some analysts said it would take some time before this had an impact on Hong Kong. They now find that they misjudged the situation.

 

Nine mainland companies launched initial public offerings (IPO) in Hong Kong from May to July.

 

But that figure would have been much bigger, had it not been for some mainland companies delaying or even scrapping their listing plans in Hong Kong.

 

China CITIC Bank and the Industrial Bank, which sought Hong Kong listings, now want to list in Shanghai first. Shanghai-listed Minsheng Bank, failing to list in Hong Kong over the past two years, decided to use the A-share market as a fund-raising vehicle by selling new shares.

 

In the meantime, four IPOs took place in Shanghai. That may not seem like many, but a further 20 are currently in the pipeline.

 

"It's a one-win-one-lose game," said Ronald Wan, head of investment banking of Softbank Investment International.

 

At a time when big corporations have almost all gone public, cost-conscious small- and medium-sized players will prefer less pricey Shanghai and Shenzhen, he said.

 

"If companies can easily raise funds at home, why should they bother to go to overseas markets where costs are much higher?"

 

That pinch for Hong Kong will be more clear in the future with less share sales by already Hong Kong-listed mainland giants, which have shifted their focus on Shanghai.

 

Bank of China, which hit Hong Kong with a US$9.7-billion IPO in Hong Kong in June, issued shares worth 20 billion yuan (US$2.5 billion) in Shanghai in July. Hong Kong-listed Air China is also floating its shares in Shanghai.

 

The central government's eagerness to revive the A-share market from a five-year lull an initiative to satisfy domestic demand and to prove the success of a massive non-tradable share reform that freed up US$200 billion in State shares - also led to the listing spree, analysts said.

 

Local investors have long criticized the government for failing to give enough support to local bourses, causing an "outflow" of many major mainland firms such as PetroChina, Air China and China Mobile.

 

Some academics have complained that this means mainlanders cannot "enjoy the fruits of its economic upturn."

 

"The central government's attitude has now apparently changed," said an anonymous analyst in Hong Kong. "It is now favouring Shanghai."

 

He cited the fact that mainland authorities asked the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the top lender, to simultaneously list in Shanghai and Hong Kong. The bank had earlier planned to list first in Hong Kong.

 

But some analysts insist that Hong Kong will remain competitive.

 

Big caps, companies with a global vision and venture capital-backed firms will prefer Hong Kong, they said, citing its size, liquidity, institutional investor base and convertible currency.

 

(China Daily August 11, 2006)