With mobile phones pushing fixed-line services to the sidelines in the world's fastest-growing telecom market, the mainland's major mobile operators are expected to post far more robust first-half results than fixed-line carriers, according to Hong Kong-based analysts.

And the latter may not regain the ground until the third-generation (3G) mobile network runs on most Chinese handsets, they said.

China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator by subscribers, is likely to register a 21 percent growth in the January-June period to reach 29 billion yuan (US$3.6 billion), according to a median of eight analysts surveyed by China Daily.

All of them agreed the firm would realize a double-digit growth.

BNP Paribas predicted the firm would gain 25 percent year-on-year to reach 30 billion yuan (US$3.75 billion), the highest estimate of all the analysts, citing weaker-than-expected market competition and its parent firm's rural penetration.

According to the investment bank, China Mobile claimed "some 80 percent of subscriber net additions" in the first half of the year. The "impressive" performance came as a result of "its active pursuit of subscribers in rural areas where penetration is lower."

More than 4 million new users choose to use the China Mobile network every month. People subscribing to its broadband services are also increasing, said Louis Wong, a director at Philip Asset Management.

China Mobile's major rival China Unicom, by comparison, may notch up a lower growth rate in income, 11.6 percent, to reach 2.6 billion yuan (US$325 million), according to the analysts' estimates.

China Unicom was seen as "laid-back" in vying for new market share during the first half, although the firm is expected to gain momentum in the second half, BNP Paribas said.

Even so, that's quite a handsome gain compared with those of the two fixed-line operators China Telecom and China Netcom which have experienced slowdowns in a saturated market since early 2005. Analysts said the duo's first-half net profit could rise by 4.2 percent and 4.5 percent to 15.3 billion (US$1.9 billion) and 6.67 billion yuan (US$834 million), respectively.

"They can hardly make a growth as they add fewer subscribers," said Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities.

All four companies, which trade their shares in Hong Kong, are expected to release interim results before the end of August.

The growth of mobile users on the mainland increased 17.5 percent year-on-year by the end of June to stand at 426.4 million, while fixed-line phone users grew a relatively meagre 8 percent to 3.65 million, according to the Ministry of Information Industry.

"The figures say everything. They are playing with a different market base," Wong said.

But analysts said China Telecom has a chance to turn the tables, in a gradual manner, after the mainland issues the first batch of 3G licences, which is widely expected in the second half. China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom are said to be on the first licence-holder list.

"That would give China Telecom a level playground," said Wong, who believes the carrier's growth has been weighed down by the mainland's delay in issuing 3G licences.

Its investment in the TD-SCDMA trial project, a 3G network, is huge, and has not reaped any rewards yet, he said.

The situation would be rectified after four to five years when 3G becomes mature and attracts the bulk of mobile users.

China Telecom has so far built 100 TD-SCDMA stations on the mainland to test the new network.
China Netcom, however, could lag behind the market in the 3G era, as some say it might not be awarded in the first batch of licences.

(China Daily August 1, 2006)