Henderson Land Development Co, Hong Kong's third-largest property developer by market value, plans to spend at least HK$30 billion (US$3.86 billion) buying land on the Chinese mainland to build more affordable homes promoted by the government.

 

The company, which invested HK$20 billion in mostly commercial developments on the mainland in the past decade, will make the investment in the next five years, said Cheung Fong Ming, executive director of Henderson (China) Investment Co, the developer's mainland unit.

 

Henderson and Hang Lung Properties Ltd are among the developers that are betting the government will encourage investment outside of overheated areas such as luxury housing. The government has curbed lending, raised the minimum down payment for larger apartments and told banks to help keep track of speculators, seeking to avoid a property bubble.

 

"Focusing on medium-sized housing is better than building larger apartments or condos" because it fits the Chinese government's priorities, said Teresa Chow at RBC Investment Management Asia in Hong Kong.

 

Henderson is expanding on the Chinese mainland after other builders announced growth plans. Hang Lung, Hong Kong's fourth-largest developer by market value, last week said it will invest about HK$25 billion in 10 projects on the mainland within the next three years.

 

CapitaLand Ltd, Southeast Asia's biggest property developer, has 18 percent of its S$18.2 billion (US$11.4 billion) assets in China and plans to double its investments in the country in five years.

 

Mainland property projects are still giving developers "a healthy return, even though profit margins have dropped in recent years due to increasing land prices," said Patrick Chow, an analyst at Tai Fook Securities Ltd in Hong Kong.

 

The average profit margin of mainland real-estate projects developed on land bought in the past four to five years has fallen to 20 to 30 percent from 40 to 50 percent, Chow said.

 

The government's measures won't lead to a sharp decline in housing prices, said Henderson's Cheung, who predicted mainland prices may fall between 5 and 10 percent this year.

 

(Shanghai Daily June 28, 2006)