WHO officials, visiting a boy in central China's Hunan Province who survived infection from H5N1 avian influenza, yesterday warned that it is too early to tell if the disease in China is under control yet and that prevention and detection measures should be stepped up.

 

"I would not be surprised if we have more human cases during the winter months," said Shigeru Omi, WHO's Western Pacific regional director, adding that outbreaks in December, January and February could be much more serious.

 

China has so far reported two deaths among six laboratory-confirmed human cases in Hunan, Anhui, Guangxi, Liaoning and Jiangxi provinces, plus another death that was judged likely but unverifiable.

 

"Based on the experiences of other countries, the number of cases will drop and then rise again," said Omi.

 

"A temporary reduction in the number of cases doesn't mean the circulation of the virus has been halted. We have to assume that the virus is still circulating, that the virus is still there in the environment at least among chickens and ducks," he said.

 

He warned that the highly pathogenic virus is very unpredictable and unstable and could mutate into a form that could pass easily between people, potentially leading to a human pandemic.

 

"We don't know when it will happen," he said. "But we have to prepare for the worst situation, and the international community has to do its utmost to try to avert or prevent it."

 

Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia have also reported human cases of bird flu in the past few months.

 

"Fortunately, so far all reported human patients were infected by sick poultry and not from human transmission," said Omi.

 

The WHO delegation also included Henk Bekedam, the organization's representative in China, Lee Chin-Kei, WHO project officer in China and Roy Wadia, its information officer in China.

 

They met with Hunan health officials and congratulated them for successfully treating the nine-year-old boy.

 

Thirty-one outbreaks of the disease amongst bird populations have been confirmed in China this year, including 27 since October.

 

(Xinhua News Agency December 23, 2005)