It will whip up Taiwan's ethnic tension and bring chaos to the island, said an article in the Beijing-based Outlook weekly magazine.

After stepping down, Lee has found he can no longer tolerate the quiet life and has publicly called for support for Taiwan's new "president" Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Following his lambasting against the anti-separatist "pan-blue camp," which consists of the Kuomintang (KMT), the People First Party, and the New Party, in his book titled "The Tiger-mouthed President," Lee has continued to find excuses for Chen Shui-bian, who himself has failed to pull Taiwan out of an economic slowdown and political instability.

On June 8 and 13, Lee met with Chen and they agreed to align Taiwan's political forces.

Lee offered a "85 plus 35 seats" formula regarding the DPP's future position on the island's "Legislative Yuan."

He said that if the DPP can garner 85 seats in the "Legislative Yuan" election by the end of this year, he is sure that the other 35 seats would follow suit and that the DPP could secure a majority in the "Legislative Yuan."

Clearly Lee is trying to help the DDP shrug off the current embarrassment the party is feeling.

Although the DPP won the "presidential election" early last year, it has yet to claim power since the party controls only 71 seats in the 225-seat "Legislative Yuan" whereas the KMT with its 119 mandates still holds an absolute majority.

To change the situation, ex-"interior minister" Huang Chu-wen, one of Lee's trusted followers, is crafting a new party under the sway of Lee. They plan to form a political alignment with the DPP at the year-end "legislature election."

This has contributed to the formation of a Lee-Bian camp.

It is clear that Lee is attempting to come back to the political stage on the island and has formed a political alliance with Chen in an effort to offset the political camp formed by the KMT's Chairman Lien Chan and Chairman of the People First Party James Soong, who often vote as an alliance in the legislature and act against Lee's separatist activities.

The KMT and the People First Party realize that only when they can co-ordinate their election strategy, can they land a victory in the year-end election.

This undoubtedly poses a challenge to the DPP which is likely to be marginalized in the year-end election unless urgent measures are taken.

Lee assumes that if Chen Shui-bian wants to keep himself at the helm, the DPP must win a majority of seats in the "legislature election."

But the DPP is too weak to achieve this goal under current circumstances.

Splitting the KMT and undermining the Soong-Lien camp is DPP's only hope, the article said.

That caters to Lee's ambitions, too.

Lee wants to split the KMT and side with Chen Shui-bian to realize his personal political gains.

Lee's defection from the KMT is unsurprising.

In fact, during his 12-year tenure, independence-minded Lee repeatedly adopted policies such as amending Taiwan's "constitution" and pushing Taiwan to join the United Nations, which are consistent with the DPP's policies, the article said.

In his mind, the DPP's policy reflects better his attitude towards Taiwan's future.

Some of Lee's slogans have been derived from the hard lines of independence-minded DPP members.

This could explain why Lee has been so quick in jumping to support Chen in public following his retirement. Lee thinks Chen Shui-bian is the right person to continue his hopes for independence.

Although Chen Shui-bian has not expressed his support of "Taiwan independence" orally since he came to power, he has evaded, rejected and even distorted the one-China policy.

Chen has been trying to push Taiwan to replace Pinyin (the system of Romanization used throughout China and in most academic institutions worldwide) with Tongyong romanization (also called phonetic transcription). He believes that this identification with Taiwan is crucial to Taiwanese. But identification should include identification with the "nation," identification with the land, ethnic recognition and cultural recognition.

Under the guise of democracy and human rights, Chen has continued to preach Taiwan's independence.

And all these opinions and ambitions are also held by Lee.

And Chen Shui-bian needs Lee's help. Chen's DPP is being blocked at every turn in the legislature by the KMT.

With a majority in the legislature, the KMT has thwarted Chen's agenda and has virtually frozen his government. With the new "legislature election," which is to be held in December, Lee is wagering that a new, middle-of-the-road party could steal the KMT's majority and give Chen a freer hand in reviving Taiwan's listless economy, for which Chen is widely blamed.

In Chen's eyes, Lee's "nativization" campaign follows his identification campaign.

Lee has made it clear that he would set up his own political group and join hands with Chen to promote his "nativization" campaign.

Lee's "nativization" campaign further testified to his hopes for independence, the article said.

Lee wants to turn to ethnic mobilization for the consolidation of his political bases.

Lee believes that the most obvious differentiation between the Lien-Soong camp and the Lee-Bian alliance concerns "non-nativization vs nativization," an issue which has caused a tremendous frenzy on the island.

Lee and his cronies are using this issue for rabble-rousing in this year's elections, in the hope that the main policy plank of "bringing the economy to the fore" proposed by the three "pan-blue" parties will lose its appeal.

"Nativization" is meant as a means to engender competition for the ruling power through the democratic process, so that the "leadership" will not be monopolized by ethnic groups from the mainland. Also on the agenda of the "nativization" campaign is deliverance from the "hegemony" of Chinese culture and emphasis on Taiwan's "autonomy."

Disregarding the historical facts, Lee's defection from the KMT and his separatist activities under the pretext of "nativization" has invited condemnation on the island, the article said.

While Lee has been toying with the idea of "nativization," he has apparently miscalculated the situation, the article said.

The mainland and Taiwan have one ancestor and have shared the same culture since ancient times. The blood ties that cross the Taiwan Straits can not be erased, the article said.

Many KMT members who are outraged by Lee's actions have called to have him expelled from the party.

His separatist activities can only polarize Taiwan politics and create new tensions across the Straits, the article concluded.

(China Daily 07/30/2001)